GUJGASLTDGujarat Gas Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

LPG/CNG/PNG/LNG Supplier
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹27,305 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
28 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹396.95▲0.04%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+10.8 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk28 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 28 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GUJGASLTD: Raw material costs consumed an additional 13.1% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (1713.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (41.2%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 21.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.459.40✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+38.0+50.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: LPG/CNG/PNG/LNG Supplier (n=7 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹396.95(+0.04%)
1M Divergence+2.18%
1 Week+6.85%
1 Month+4.45%
6 Months-3.02%
1 Year-13%
2 Year-26.42%
3 Year-13.35%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GUJGASLTD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.4%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing4%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0242σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#948 of 2716
Top 34.90% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+6.8%
1M+4.5%
6M-3.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹390.96
200 DMA₹400.34
150 DMA Slope-1.5995%Declining
Relative Strength+1.53%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0015
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (16).
ATGLAdani Total Gas Limited
7 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-3
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

MGLMahanagar Gas Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-3
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Growth Sustainability

Watch

GUJGASLTDGujarat Gas Limited
28 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.828th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202624,9721,6782,7213,060
FY202517,3931,1481,806-
FY202416,3991,1441,634-
FY202317,4071,5282,375-