GULFOILLUBGulf Oil Lubricants India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Lubricants
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹5,286 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
12 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹924.8▼0.32%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+10.6 pts
Growth Sustainability
+9.6 pts
Competitive Position
+7.7 pts
Stability Adjustment
-16.0 pts
Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 12 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (17.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (10.8%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
GULFOILLUB: EBITDA margin compressed by 1.6 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 29.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)25.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+54.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Lubricants (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹924.8(-0.32%)
1M Divergence-8.22%
1 Week-0.69%
1 Month-5.95%
6 Months-19.36%
1 Year-17.02%
2 Year+6.3%
3 Year+130.3%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GULFOILLUB • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6340σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2248 of 2716
Top 82.77% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.7%
1M-6.0%
6M-19.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,065.9
200 DMA₹1,099.68
150 DMA Slope-3.1105%Declining
Relative Strength-13.87%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0873
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).
GULFOILLUBGulf Oil Lubricants India Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

CASTROLINDCastrol India Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+4
Active Flags9
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.929.1th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
4.948.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
0.44th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,154345350514
FY20253,730357395422
FY20243,369308341333
FY20233,046232273332