GVPILGVPIL Forensic Risk Analysis

Heavy Electrical Equipment
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
8 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

40.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹858.95▲4.51%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-2.0 pts
Final Composite Risk8 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 11 → 8 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
GVPIL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -17.29x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (69.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (21.3%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
GVPIL: Net Profit collapsed by 51.6% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.926.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+58.0+55.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Heavy Electrical Equipment (n=31 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹858.95(+4.51%)
1M Divergence+39.86%
1 Week+7.69%
1 Month+42.13%
6 Months+150.57%
1 Year+200.38%
2 Year+177.08%
3 Year+549.98%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GVPIL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.97%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score85%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing97%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+3.8321σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#14 of 2716
Top 0.52% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+7.7%
1M+42.1%
6M+150.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹427.82
200 DMA₹406.93
150 DMA Slope+13.9433%Rising
Relative Strength+156.06%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7657
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (11).
AARTECHAartech Solonics Limited
4 Risk
Sector %ile17th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

GVPILGVPIL
8 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+5
Active Flags4
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

BAJELBajel Projects Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta-5
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ELECONElecon Engineering Company Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+30
Active Flags6
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,384253469-
FY20251,118203320-
FY20241,766-171173102
FY20231,884-44190292