GVT&DGE Vernova T&D India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Heavy Electrical Equipment
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹96,658 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in growth sustainability. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

20.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹4,781▲0.55%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+9.6 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-13.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (74.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (42.7%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 3.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
GVT&D: Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.0% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.366.30✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+55.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Heavy Electrical Equipment (n=31 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹4,781(+0.55%)
1M Divergence+4.78%
1 Week-1.39%
1 Month+7.05%
6 Months+70.44%
1 Year+108.31%
2 Year+252.52%
3 Year+2561.14%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in growth sustainability remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

GVT&D • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score100%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing98%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.1316σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#202 of 2716
Top 7.44% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.4%
1M+7.0%
6M+70.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹3,545.13
200 DMA₹3,381.91
150 DMA Slope+6.5421%Rising
Relative Strength+75.93%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5606
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (11).
AARTECHAartech Solonics Limited
4 Risk
Sector %ile17th
Delta-5
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

GVT&DGE Vernova T&D India Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile20th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

BAJELBajel Projects Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile77th
Delta-5
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ELECONElecon Engineering Company Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+30
Active Flags6
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
0.44th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20266,2971,2331,710-
FY20254,355608904-
FY20243,1901815180
FY20232,807-1-37220