Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹25.44(▲1.56%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

HARDWYNHARDWYN Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: HARDWYN Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Furniture Home Furnishing

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

18 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

28.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹25.44▲1.56%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+18.0 pts

Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 18 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Margin Compression
Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 54.2%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Operating margin declined by 5.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

HARDWYN: EBITDA margin compressed by 6.4 bps YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

HARDWYN: Net Profit collapsed by 55.1% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

HARDWYN: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (19.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (3.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

HARDWYN: Revenue fell 7.3% while Debt rose 102.2% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.92	12.35	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+48.0	+42.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Furniture Home Furnishing (n=8 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹25.44(+1.56%)

1M Divergence-8.7%

1 Week-0.93%

1 Month-6.44%

6 Months+48.95%

1 Year+78.15%

2 Year+24.1%

3 Year-23.67%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

HARDWYN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score100%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing98%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+1.1246σ

Strong positive momentum leadership

Universe Rank#206 of 2716

Top 7.58% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.9%

1M-6.4%

6M+49.0%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹18.92

200 DMA₹17.53

150 DMA Slope+8.9136%Rising

Relative Strength+57.73%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)3.1943

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (24).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
HARDWYNHARDWYN	18	29th	-5	9	+0	GovernanceStable
BIRLANUBirlaNu Limited	28	57th	-5	29	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AHLADAAhlada Engineers Limited	35	71th	+5	26	+1	Competitive PositionWatch
RESPONINDRESPONIND	35	71th	0	20	+0	Earnings QualityWatch