Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹922.85(▼1.16%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

HATSUNHATSUN Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: HATSUN Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Dairy Products

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

9 / 100

+5 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹922.85▼1.16%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+10.8 pts

Stability Adjustment

-2.0 pts

Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 9 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 68.7%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

HATSUN: Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.1% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (37.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (8.3%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

HATSUN: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.22x in FY2025 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.27	8.44	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+57.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Dairy Products (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹922.85(-1.16%)

1M Divergence-5.45%

1 Week-0.15%

1 Month-3.18%

6 Months-10.91%

1 Year-2.75%

2 Year-6.77%

3 Year+7.7%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

HATSUN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.15%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score20%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing15%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.2580σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1561 of 2716

Top 57.47% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.1%

1M-3.2%

6M-10.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹953.62

200 DMA₹938

150 DMA Slope+0.6121%Rising

Relative Strength-4.73%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3307

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
HATSUNHATSUN	9	0th	+5	6	+1	Earnings QualityStable
DODLADodla Dairy Limited	15	50th	+3	11	+1	Earnings QualityStable
VADILALINDVADILALIND	30	75th	-5	23	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
HERITGFOODHeritage Foods Limited	31	100th	+14	15	+5	Balance Sheet StressWatch