HCCHindustan Construction Company Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹4,390 Cr
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
21 / 100
-3 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

75.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹23.42▲5.07%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+5.8 pts
Final Composite Risk21 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 10 → 21 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
HCC: Net Profit collapsed by 63.4% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HCC: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.82x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.754.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+45.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹23.42(+5.07%)
1M Divergence+5.88%
1 Week+6.75%
1 Month+6.26%
6 Months+7.23%
1 Year-31.94%
2 Year-36.7%
3 Year+25.58%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

HCC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.23%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score55%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing23%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.8770σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#284 of 2716
Top 10.46% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+6.8%
1M+6.3%
6M+7.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹20.24
200 DMA₹22.07
150 DMA Slope-3.5779%Declining
Relative Strength+12.72%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.8168
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
AKASHAkash Infra-Projects Limited
11 Risk
Sector %ile52th
Delta+5
Active Flags21
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

HCCHindustan Construction Company Limited
21 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-3
Active Flags4
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

BRNLBharat Road Network Limited
44 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+30
Active Flags16
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,0811668921,019
FY20255,7271131341,679
FY20247,139478912,126
FY20239,912-28175,295