HCLTECHHCL Technologies Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Computers - Software & Consulting
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹3,71,989 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+20 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

91.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,243.5▲4.05%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+21.7 pts
Competitive Position
+20.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+3.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-11.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth has slowed, indicating weakening demand environment.

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HCLTECH: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -61.34x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HCLTECH: Net Profit collapsed by 120.9% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.185.07✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Computers - Software & Consulting (n=36 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,243.5(+4.05%)
1M Divergence-2.2%
1 Week+7.02%
1 Month+3.7%
6 Months-22.85%
1 Year-20.52%
2 Year+1.5%
3 Year+22.91%
Sector Average (1M)+5.9%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

HCLTECH • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score15%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5216σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2096 of 2716
Top 77.17% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+7.0%
1M+3.7%
6M-22.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,447.82
200 DMA₹1,439.26
150 DMA Slope-2.0777%Declining
Relative Strength-17.36%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3486
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
3IINFOLTD3i Infotech Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile40th
Delta+5
Active Flags13
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

HCLTECHHCL Technologies Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile91th
Delta+20
Active Flags4
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

ACCELYAAccelya Solutions India Limited
39 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-6
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
1.313.1th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.261.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202657,2367,62712,12910
FY2025119,54017,39922,2612,291
FY2024111,40815,71022,4482,327
FY2023102,81414,84518,0092,251