HEGHEG Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Electrodes & Refractories
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹11,013 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
18 / 100
-2 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹550.15▼1.86%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+17.6 pts
Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 18 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HEG: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -15.02x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
HEG: Net Profit collapsed by 323.9% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (5.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-3.4%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
HEG: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 3.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (21.0%) amidst slow revenue growth (-4.9%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.59.83✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+48.0+48.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Electrodes & Refractories (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹550.15(-1.86%)
1M Divergence-9.97%
1 Week-6.31%
1 Month-7.7%
6 Months+5.17%
1 Year+6.33%
2 Year+21.39%
3 Year+119.21%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

HEG • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.62%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score42.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing62%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4263σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1934 of 2716
Top 71.21% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-6.3%
1M-7.7%
6M+5.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹559.62
200 DMA₹546.26
150 DMA Slope+1.8174%Rising
Relative Strength+10.66%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9998
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (17.5).
HEGHEG Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta-2
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

IFGLEXPORIFGLEXPOR
27 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags32
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

GRAPHITEGraphite India Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+20
Active Flags21
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
1.212th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,709341213793
FY20252,287115280587
FY20242,537312612619
FY20232,576532113741