HERANBAHERANBA Forensic Risk Analysis

Pesticides & Agrochemicals
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
45 / 100
+10 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

88.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹178.41▲0.11%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+19.5 pts
Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Final Composite Risk45 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 45 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (10)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HERANBA: EBITDA margin compressed by 6.0 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 9.7% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 9.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HERANBA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -3.94x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (36.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-7.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
HERANBA: Net Profit collapsed by 105.7% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
HERANBA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (26.7%) amidst slow revenue growth (3.4%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 14.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
HERANBA: Revenue fell 4.5% while Debt rose 80.8% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.927.62✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+21.0+46.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Pesticides & Agrochemicals (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹178.41(+0.11%)
1M Divergence-20.85%
1 Week-5.38%
1 Month-18.59%
6 Months-28.28%
1 Year-40%
2 Year-38.79%
3 Year-45.49%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

HERANBA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.9379σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2512 of 2716
Top 92.49% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.4%
1M-18.6%
6M-28.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹224.03
200 DMA₹249.21
150 DMA Slope-5.8341%Declining
Relative Strength-22.79%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8979
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19.5).
ADVANCEAdvance Agrolife Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile44th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Growth Sustainability

Stable

ASTECAstec LifeSciences Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta-5
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

HERANBAHERANBA
45 Risk
Sector %ile89th
Delta+10
Active Flags10
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

BESTAGROBest Agrolife Limited
47 Risk
Sector %ile94th
Delta+33
Active Flags15
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
0.22.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,603-78-96573
FY20251,4172101345
FY20241,27135107161
FY20231,33110413889