HERITGFOODHeritage Foods Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Dairy Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹2,898 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
31 / 100
+14 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +5 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹322.95▲1.35%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+13.5 pts
Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Earnings Quality
+6.6 pts
Final Composite Risk31 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 31 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 69.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (17.3%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (8.8%).

"Slight build-up in inventory detected. Monitor for slowing sales momentum."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (16.9%) amidst slow revenue growth (8.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.648.44✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+35.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Dairy Products (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹322.95(+1.35%)
1M Divergence-12.1%
1 Week-3.73%
1 Month-9.83%
6 Months-33.01%
1 Year-22.63%
2 Year-19.06%
3 Year+58.23%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

HERITGFOOD • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6321σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2247 of 2716
Top 82.73% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.7%
1M-9.8%
6M-33.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹393.33
200 DMA₹416.23
150 DMA Slope-4.9293%Declining
Relative Strength-27.52%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7236
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).
DODLADodla Dairy Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+3
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

VADILALINDVADILALIND
30 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta-5
Active Flags23
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

HERITGFOODHeritage Foods Limited
31 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+14
Active Flags5
Accel+5
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
3.232.5th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,550150237324
FY20254,162188214136
FY20243,80610739093
FY20233,25349-61134