HEROMOTOCOHero MotoCorp Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

2/3 Wheelers
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹1,11,730 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

20.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹4,875▲1.14%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+4.8 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 5 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (36.0%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (16.2%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
HEROMOTOCO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 22.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.53.96✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+58.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: 2/3 Wheelers (n=6 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹4,875(+1.14%)
1M Divergence-6.66%
1 Week-2.17%
1 Month-4.39%
6 Months-21.61%
1 Year+19.21%
2 Year+1.76%
3 Year+86.12%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

HEROMOTOCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.7135σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2332 of 2716
Top 85.86% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.2%
1M-4.4%
6M-21.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹5,459.45
200 DMA₹5,391.65
150 DMA Slope-0.8401%Declining
Relative Strength-16.12%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8438
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (8).
HEROMOTOCOHero MotoCorp Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile20th
Delta0
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ATHERENERGAther Energy Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta-5
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

OLAELECOla Electric Mobility Limited
50 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+8
Active Flags23
Accel+3
Balance Sheet Stress

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202648,4695,7768,315499
FY202541,9684,3764,297457
FY202438,6433,7424,923363
FY202334,7272,8002,614313