HGINFRAH.G. Infra Engineering Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹3,473 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure has stabilized in project execution and margins. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

80.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹575.6▲0.62%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+5.3 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 14 → 25 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 5.6 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
HGINFRA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
HGINFRA: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HGINFRA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.82x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
HGINFRA: Revenue fell 6.1% while Debt rose 172.0% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.584.13⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹575.6(+0.62%)
1M Divergence-3.64%
1 Week-3.46%
1 Month-3.26%
6 Months-31.5%
1 Year-49.03%
2 Year-61.71%
3 Year-38.7%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

HGINFRA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4066σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1886 of 2716
Top 69.44% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-3.5%
1M-3.3%
6M-31.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹677.29
200 DMA₹750.8
150 DMA Slope-6.1414%Declining
Relative Strength-26.01%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.6570
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
HGINFRAH.G. Infra Engineering Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta0
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

BRNLBharat Road Network Limited
44 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+30
Active Flags16
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.564.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20265,2633302504,934
FY20255,070505-4224,092
FY20245,396539-3111,504
FY20234,640493-1391,907