HINDCOPPERHindustan Copper Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Copper
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹55,701 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
6 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

100.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
546.21.16%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+6.0 pts
Final Composite Risk6 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 46 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Revenue-Debt Divergence
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 579.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
HINDCOPPER: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.1 bps YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
HINDCOPPER: Revenue fell 0.1% while Debt rose 42.3% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.54.46⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+60.0+63.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Copper (n=2 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
546.2(+1.16%)
1M Divergence-0.14%
1 Week-1.76%
1 Month+2.12%
6 Months+49.58%
1 Year+117.84%
2 Year+54.95%
3 Year+387.5%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

HINDCOPPER • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.91%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score75%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing91%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.2672σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#634 of 2716
Top 23.34% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.8%
1M+2.1%
6M+49.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA491.41
200 DMA439.28
150 DMA Slope+6.5572%Rising
Relative Strength+55.07%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3891
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (3).
BHAGYANGRBhagyanagar India Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags11
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

HINDCOPPERHindustan Copper Limited
6 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta-5
Active Flags3
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20263,1509191,474110
FY20252,148465544166
FY20241,772295292222
FY20231,773295674156