HINDOILEXPHINDOILEXP Forensic Risk Analysis

Oil Exploration & Production
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
13 / 100
-22 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in project execution and margins. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹171.79▲4.11%
PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+13.4 pts
Final Composite Risk13 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 13 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HINDOILEXP: EBITDA margin compressed by 23.2 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 46.9% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 26.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Inventory growth (396.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-65.7%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
HINDOILEXP: Net Profit collapsed by 80.9% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 11.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (17.2%) amidst slow revenue growth (-13.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)910.48✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+53.0+41.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Oil Exploration & Production (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹171.79(+4.11%)
1M Divergence+6.05%
1 Week+6.12%
1 Month+8.32%
6 Months+11.55%
1 Year+1.24%
2 Year-10.36%
3 Year-7.79%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

HINDOILEXP • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.16%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score55%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing16%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.5905σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#402 of 2716
Top 14.80% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+6.1%
1M+8.3%
6M+11.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹149.88
200 DMA₹154.56
150 DMA Slope-0.1775%Declining
Relative Strength+17.04%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2587
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (25).
HINDOILEXPHINDOILEXP
13 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-22
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

ONGCOil & Natural Gas Corporation Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta+5
Active Flags12
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

ANTELOPUSAntelopus Selan Energy Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

OILOil India Limited
29 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+5
Active Flags16
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
1.110.9th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2025497147161121
FY2024768226123174
FY2023568194219364
FY202216720108-