Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹407.05(▲1.04%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

HONASAHonasa Consumer Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Honasa Consumer Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Personal Care

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹9,533 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

9 / 100

-1 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

12.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹407.05▲1.04%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.8 pts

Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 9 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

HONASA: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.0 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 5.4% of revenue YoY.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

HONASA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -6.78x in FY2025 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

HONASA: Net Profit collapsed by 163.1% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (36.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-4.2%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 22.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	8.27	8.86	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+57.0	+51.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Personal Care (n=9 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹407.05(+1.04%)

1M Divergence+17.24%

1 Week+2.79%

1 Month+19.51%

6 Months+46.34%

1 Year+29.22%

2 Year-7.82%

3 Year-2.37%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

HONASA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.98%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score100%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing98%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+1.2833σ

Strong positive momentum leadership

Universe Rank#175 of 2716

Top 6.44% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+2.8%

1M+19.5%

6M+46.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹302.49

200 DMA₹299.65

150 DMA Slope+3.7037%Rising

Relative Strength+50.12%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.7024

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BAJAJCONBajaj Consumer Care Limited	8	0th	-5	12	+0	GovernanceStable
HONASAHonasa Consumer Limited	9	13th	-1	6	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
EMAMILTDEmami Limited	25	75th	-5	9	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
COLPALColgate Palmolive (India) Limited	28	100th	-2	20	+0	Competitive PositionWatch