HUBTOWNHUBTOWN Forensic Risk Analysis

Residential Commercial Projects
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
10 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

49.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹206.92▼0.68%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+18.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
-17.0 pts
Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 22 → 10 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Low Interest Coverage
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (4)

CriticalHigh
Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 9 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
HUBTOWN: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.42x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 5.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
HUBTOWN: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
HUBTOWN: Net Profit collapsed by 2001.3% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.175.31✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+56.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Residential Commercial Projects (n=50 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹206.92(-0.68%)
1M Divergence+1.64%
1 Week+0.32%
1 Month+2.02%
6 Months-32.48%
1 Year+15.5%
2 Year+66.33%
3 Year+378.98%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

HUBTOWN • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.4937σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2047 of 2716
Top 75.37% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.3%
1M+2.0%
6M-32.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹236.39
200 DMA₹258.74
150 DMA Slope-5.1059%Declining
Relative Strength-26.99%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8002
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
AGIILAgi Infra Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta+5
Active Flags1
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

HUBTOWNHUBTOWN
10 Risk
Sector %ile49th
Delta+5
Active Flags4
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

ARIHANTSUPArihant Superstructures Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile73th
Delta-5
Active Flags17
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

AMJLANDAmj Land Holdings Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+35
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
110th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20268331641871,196
FY202552646-580793
FY2024362-86161940
FY202333631-6862