HUDCOHousing & Urban Development Corporation Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Financial Institution
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹33,626 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
18 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

83.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
202.760%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+18.0 pts
Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 1818 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Debt growth
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 8 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
HUDCO: NIM compressed by 71 bps YoY (to 2.75%).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.553.81⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+48.0+55.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Financial Institution (n=7 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
202.76(+0%)
1M Divergence-7.47%
1 Week-1.88%
1 Month-8.2%
6 Months-7.61%
1 Year-15.85%
2 Year-21.89%
3 Year+265.93%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

HUDCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0961σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1184 of 2716
Top 43.59% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.9%
1M-8.2%
6M-7.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA205.42
200 DMA208.17
150 DMA Slope-0.7856%Declining
Relative Strength-2.12%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2529
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (11).
IFCIIFCI Limited
13 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta-5
Active Flags8
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

HUDCOHousing & Urban Development Corporation Limited
18 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-5
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202613,3274,034-33,912141,677
FY202510,3482,709-31,603107,297
FY20247,9482,117-10,287-
FY20237,0861,701-85162,903