HUHTAMAKIHUHTAMAKI Forensic Risk Analysis

Packaging
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

36.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹167.31▲4.5%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 11 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Governance Integrity Shock
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Governance Integrity Shock
⚖️ Governance SignalsQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2027
HUHTAMAKI: High leadership churn detected (3 key resignations).

"Governance concerns are receding. Promoter alignment and board stability are improving."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 4.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
HUHTAMAKI: Net Profit collapsed by 96.4% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.56.71✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Packaging (n=23 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹167.31(+4.5%)
1M Divergence-8.99%
1 Week-0.77%
1 Month-6.72%
6 Months-20.85%
1 Year-17.23%
2 Year-44.93%
3 Year-39.8%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

HUHTAMAKI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5008σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2065 of 2716
Top 76.03% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.8%
1M-6.7%
6M-20.9%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹192.03
200 DMA₹201.09
150 DMA Slope-4.4399%Declining
Relative Strength-15.36%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.3905
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
HUHTAMAKIHUHTAMAKI
15 Risk
Sector %ile36th
Delta0
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

AERONEUAeroflex Neu Limited
15 Risk
Sector %ile36th
Delta+5
Active Flags19
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

ESTERESTER
33 Risk
Sector %ile82th
Delta-2
Active Flags26
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ARROWGREENArrow Greentech Limited
47 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+27
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20252,505118238101
FY20242,55588142101
FY20232,565410274203
FY20223,00050133366