IDEAFORGEIDEAFORGE Forensic Risk Analysis

Aerospace & Defense
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

55.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹845.3▲0%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+25.0 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 25 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 449.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Aggressive Capex (66.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-88.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 15.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 6 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
IDEAFORGE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -33.12x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
IDEAFORGE: Net Profit collapsed by 2106.5% from FY2025 Q1 to FY2026 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
IDEAFORGE: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (29.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-88.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.457.38⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+46.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Aerospace & Defense (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹845.3(+0%)
1M Divergence+36.49%
1 Week-1.18%
1 Month+38.76%
6 Months+86.68%
1 Year+59.85%
2 Year+24.79%
3 Year-25.96%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

IDEAFORGE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.99%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score100%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing99%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+3.4063σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#25 of 2716
Top 0.92% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.2%
1M+38.8%
6M+86.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹493.46
200 DMA₹492.39
150 DMA Slope+7.9826%Rising
Relative Strength+89.35%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.3304
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).
AEQUSAequs Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile50th
Delta+15
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

IDEAFORGEIDEAFORGE
25 Risk
Sector %ile55th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

BDLBharat Dynamics Limited
40 Risk
Sector %ile95th
Delta+5
Active Flags23
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

DCXINDIADCXINDIA
53 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+18
Active Flags29
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026248-17-6372
FY2025182-62-77-
FY20243444576-