Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,050.55(▲0%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

IFBAGROIFBAGRO Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: IFBAGRO Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Breweries & Distilleries

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

12 / 100

0 QoQ

Stable

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. No major change in risk trend.

46.1th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹1,050.55▲0%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+11.9 pts

Final Composite Risk12 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 12 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 50.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

IFBAGRO: Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.3% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

IFBAGRO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

IFBAGRO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -11.78x in FY2024 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

IFBAGRO: Net Profit collapsed by 127.9% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (14.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-27.0%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.25	9.05	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+54.0	+52.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Breweries & Distilleries (n=14 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹1,050.55(+0%)

1M Divergence+18.99%

1 Week+2.15%

1 Month+21.26%

6 Months-14.6%

1 Year+27.59%

2 Year+148.27%

3 Year+117.42%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

IFBAGRO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.18%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score37.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing18%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.4394σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#487 of 2716

Top 17.93% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W+2.1%

1M+21.3%

6M-14.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹1,121.93

200 DMA₹1,046.74

150 DMA Slope+1.5942%Rising

Relative Strength-12.75%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9816

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
BCLINDBcl Industries Limited	5	8th	+5	13	+1	Competitive PositionStable
IFBAGROIFBAGRO	12	46th	0	6	+0	Earnings QualityStable
ASALCBRAssociated Alcohols & Breweries Ltd.	34	77th	-3	19	+0	Competitive PositionWatch
ABDLAllied Blenders and Distillers Limited	35	85th	+20	15	+1	Competitive PositionWatch