INGERRANDIngersoll Rand (India) Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Compressors Pumps & Diesel Engines
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹12,338 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
-8 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

83.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹3,728.7▼3.58%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+11.9 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
+4.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (24.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-7.7%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
INGERRAND: EBITDA margin compressed by 3.2 bps YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
INGERRAND: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 7.7%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.837.92✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+58.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Compressors Pumps & Diesel Engines (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹3,728.7(-3.58%)
1M Divergence-17.86%
1 Week-14.26%
1 Month-15.6%
6 Months+1.25%
1 Year-3.42%
2 Year-10.93%
3 Year+46.28%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

INGERRAND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.23%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score35%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing23%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5855σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2191 of 2716
Top 80.67% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-14.3%
1M-15.6%
6M+1.3%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹3,769.85
200 DMA₹3,778.22
150 DMA Slope+1.5548%Rising
Relative Strength+6.74%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.1135
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (8).
CUMMINSINDCummins India Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile17th
Delta+5
Active Flags8
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

INGERRANDIngersoll Rand (India) Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-8
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

ROTOROTO
35 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta+22
Active Flags22
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,431256274-
FY20251,375268265-
FY20241,241222207-
FY20231,170183148-