Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹135.97(▲1.24%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

IRCONIrcon International Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Ircon International Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Civil Construction

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹12,885 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

15 / 100

-4 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

53.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹135.97▲1.24%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+15.0 pts

Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 7 → 15 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Relative Growth Weakness
Operating Leverage Stress
Profit Collapse

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

IRCON: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

IRCON: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2025

IRCON: Net Profit collapsed by 64.8% from FY2024 Q3 to FY2025 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

IRCON: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.19x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

IRCON: Revenue fell 14.6% while Debt rose 32.8% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	2.5	4.13	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+51.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹135.97(+1.24%)

1M Divergence-11.04%

1 Week-3.04%

1 Month-10.66%

6 Months-11.1%

1 Year-29.26%

2 Year-48.3%

3 Year+76.17%

Sector Average (1M)+0.38%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

IRCON • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4524σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1986 of 2716

Top 73.12% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.0%

1M-10.7%

6M-11.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹151.62

200 DMA₹156.46

150 DMA Slope-2.3449%Declining

Relative Strength-5.61%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7364

ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AHLUCONTAhluwalia Contracts (India) Limited	9	44th	+5	9	+1	Earnings QualityStable
IRCONIrcon International Limited	15	54th	-4	7	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited	35	90th	+25	12	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
BRNLBharat Road Network Limited	44	100th	+30	16	+3	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration