IRMENERGYIRMENERGY Forensic Risk Analysis

LPG/CNG/PNG/LNG Supplier
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
15 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

16.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹268.4▲1.98%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+7.7 pts
Stability Adjustment
+7.0 pts
Final Composite Risk15 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 15 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Governance Integrity Shock
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Governance Integrity Shock
⚖️ Governance SignalsQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ1 FY2027
IRMENERGY: Key governance event detected: DIRECTOR_RESIGNATION.

"Governance concerns are receding. Promoter alignment and board stability are improving."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ1 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.7 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
IRMENERGY: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
IRMENERGY: Net Profit collapsed by 51.1% from FY2024 Q4 to FY2025 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (0.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-75.5%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -3.4%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (22.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (7.9%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)9.559.40⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+51.0+50.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: LPG/CNG/PNG/LNG Supplier (n=7 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹268.4(+1.98%)
1M Divergence-27.07%
1 Week-1.65%
1 Month-24.8%
6 Months-7.99%
1 Year-7.52%
2 Year-43.09%
3 Year-41.53%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

IRMENERGY • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.5%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score25%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing5%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0016σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#992 of 2716
Top 36.52% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.6%
1M-24.8%
6M-8.0%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹265.04
200 DMA₹276.03
150 DMA Slope-2.9224%Declining
Relative Strength-2.50%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)5.6251
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (16).
ATGLAdani Total Gas Limited
7 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta-3
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

IRMENERGYIRMENERGY
15 Risk
Sector %ile17th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Stable

GUJGASLTDGujarat Gas Limited
28 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+5
Active Flags11
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
4.948.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,1855314350
FY20251,0914594126
FY202498086120211