JAYNECOINDJAYNECOIND Forensic Risk Analysis

Iron & Steel Products
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
3 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

7.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹99.52▲0.67%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+3.0 pts
Final Composite Risk3 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 10 → 3 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
  • Profit Collapse
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
JAYNECOIND: Net Profit collapsed by 137.3% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Inventory growth (16.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-3.9%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
JAYNECOIND: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.79x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Aggressive Capex (15.6%) amidst slow revenue growth (-18.0%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2024
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by -6.9%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.587.53✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+63.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Iron & Steel Products (n=41 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹99.52(+0.67%)
1M Divergence-12.44%
1 Week-2.92%
1 Month-10.17%
6 Months+44.13%
1 Year+149.11%
2 Year+118.25%
3 Year+357.56%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

JAYNECOIND • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.95%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score82.5%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing95%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.6320σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#381 of 2716
Top 14.03% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.9%
1M-10.2%
6M+44.1%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹82.97
200 DMA₹78.7
150 DMA Slope+5.8860%Rising
Relative Strength+49.62%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9166
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company appears relatively stable compared to the Sector Mean (15).
JAYNECOINDJAYNECOIND
3 Risk
Sector %ile8th
Delta-5
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

AEROENTERAeroflex Enterprises Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile15th
Delta-5
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BHARATWIREBharat Wire Ropes Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile58th
Delta+5
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Competitive Position

Stable

BEDMUTHABedmutha Industries Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta-5
Active Flags28
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2025

Capex Efficiency Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20267,1454631,3672,097
FY20256,0121131,3882,723
FY20245,9522106813,214
FY20236,3652277393,414