JBMAJBM Auto Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Auto Components & Equipments
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹12,429 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
+3 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is gradually increasing.

74.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹647.35▲0.07%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+20.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 6 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Working capital efficiency
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 91.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
Inventory growth (11.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
JBMA: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
JBMA: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.06x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)55.20✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹647.35(+0.07%)
1M Divergence+0.46%
1 Week+1.25%
1 Month+2.73%
6 Months+7.47%
1 Year-9.66%
2 Year-37.97%
3 Year+61.87%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

JBMA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.9%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing9%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.3114σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#588 of 2716
Top 21.65% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+1.3%
1M+2.7%
6M+7.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹599.31
200 DMA₹613.29
150 DMA Slope-0.7296%Declining
Relative Strength+12.96%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7726
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
JBMAJBM Auto Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta+3
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

HITECHGEARHITECHGEAR
42 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+6
Active Flags28
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Negative FCF Streak

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20266,227238-603,006
FY20255,5262153942,606
FY20245,0301942052,101
FY20233,8841254841,676