JINDALSAWJindal Saw Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Iron & Steel Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹11,428 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
36 / 100
+6 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

95.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹241.12▲0.1%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+6.4 pts
Final Composite Risk36 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 36 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 5.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
JINDALSAW: Net Profit collapsed by 70.8% from FY2025 Q2 to FY2026 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (9.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-23.9%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
JINDALSAW: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.07x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Earnings buffer for interest payments is narrowing. Monitor for margin pressure."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 11.4%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)87.53⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+30.0+51.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Iron & Steel Products (n=41 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹241.12(+0.1%)
1M Divergence+6.98%
1 Week+5.35%
1 Month+9.24%
6 Months+48.38%
1 Year+14.72%
2 Year-8%
3 Year+102.83%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

JINDALSAW • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.74%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score70%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing74%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+1.0933σ
Strong positive momentum leadership
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#215 of 2716
Top 7.92% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+5.3%
1M+9.2%
6M+48.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹187.6
200 DMA₹191.21
150 DMA Slope+2.2064%Rising
Relative Strength+53.87%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7441
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (15).
AEROENTERAeroflex Enterprises Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile15th
Delta-5
Active Flags14
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

BEDMUTHABedmutha Industries Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile85th
Delta-5
Active Flags28
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

JINDALSAWJindal Saw Limited
36 Risk
Sector %ile95th
Delta+6
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202617,9879251,7714,691
FY202520,9481,4582,3354,859
FY202421,1261,5932,5935,761
FY202318,0464431,6174,922