JKPAPERJK Paper Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Paper & Paper Products
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹5,860 Cr
Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
30 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

66.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹361.85▲0.04%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
+21.0 pts
Final Composite Risk30 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 30 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (9)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 2.1 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
JKPAPER: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.8 bps YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
JKPAPER: Net Profit collapsed by 57.8% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Inventory Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Inventory growth (42.8%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (3.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 10.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
JKPAPER: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.78x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Aggressive Capex (16.4%) amidst slow revenue growth (3.1%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)7.0913.49✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+36.0+37.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Paper & Paper Products (n=13 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹361.85(+0.04%)
1M Divergence-1.82%
1 Week-6.24%
1 Month+0.44%
6 Months-2.49%
1 Year-0.03%
2 Year-3.82%
3 Year+14.57%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

JKPAPER • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.4%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score37.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing4%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2951σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1630 of 2716
Top 60.01% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-6.2%
1M+0.4%
6M-2.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹358.03
200 DMA₹365.1
150 DMA Slope-0.7507%Declining
Relative Strength+2.86%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9974
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (29).
BALKRISHNABalkrishna Paper Mills Limited
14 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+5
Active Flags16
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ANDHRAPAPANDHRA PAPER LIMITED
25 Risk
Sector %ile42th
Delta-5
Active Flags32
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

JKPAPERJK Paper Limited
30 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta-5
Active Flags9
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

ABRELAditya Birla Real Estate Limited
60 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+18
Active Flags42
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Elevated Structural Stress

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Capex Efficiency Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20267,1362747732,436
FY20256,8264126131,885
FY20246,8861,1331,3762,204
FY20236,6091,2081,7622,803