Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹637.2(▼0.14%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

JUBLINGREAJubilant Ingrevia Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Jubilant Ingrevia Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Specialty Chemicals

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹9,095 Cr

Primary DriverCompetitive Position

Flagium AI Risk Score

18 / 100

-2 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in competitive position. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Minor improvements are visible in the risk trend.

40.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹637.2▼0.14%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position

+10.6 pts

Earnings Quality

+7.2 pts

Final Composite Risk18 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 18 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

⚠ Watch

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Inventory turnover
Operating profit margins
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Inventory growth (0.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-2.2%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ3 FY2024

JUBLINGREA: Net Profit collapsed by 57.9% from FY2023 Q3 to FY2024 Q3.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

JUBLINGREA: Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.9% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 8.6%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (19.8%) amidst slow revenue growth (2.6%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

JUBLINGREA: Revenue fell 13.2% while Debt rose 84.8% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	4	10.68	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+48.0	+46.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Specialty Chemicals (n=51 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹637.2(-0.14%)

1M Divergence-12.99%

1 Week-8.59%

1 Month-10.73%

6 Months-7.09%

1 Year-12.6%

2 Year+29.26%

3 Year+62.45%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in competitive position remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. The current structural trajectory supports a stable risk outlook.

JUBLINGREA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.7%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score20%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing7%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.3408σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#1747 of 2716

Top 64.32% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-8.6%

1M-10.7%

6M-7.1%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹665.17

200 DMA₹672.07

150 DMA Slope+0.9558%Rising

Relative Strength-1.60%Neutral

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3700

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
JUBLINGREAJubilant Ingrevia Limited	18	40th	-2	7	+0	Competitive PositionStable
AARTIINDAarti Industries Limited	20	46th	-5	24	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ANURASAnupam Rasayan India Limited	31	78th	+16	29	+2	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ACIArchean Chemical Industries Limited	35	84th	+20	22	+1	Earnings QualityWatch