Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹600(▲2.48%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

JYOTICNCJyoti CNC Automation Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Jyoti CNC Automation Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Industrial Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹17,567 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

24 / 100

+9 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

54.5th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹600▲2.48%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+15.0 pts

Balance Sheet Stress

+8.8 pts

Final Composite Risk24 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 24 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Industrial Margin Stress
Operating Leverage Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Debt growth
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

JYOTICNC: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.4 bps YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

JYOTICNC: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

JYOTICNC: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Aggressive Capex (28.3%) amidst slow revenue growth (-75.9%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 13.5%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.55	8.74	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+42.0	+45.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Products (n=45 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹600(+2.48%)

1M Divergence-22.26%

1 Week-9.13%

1 Month-19.99%

6 Months-37.61%

1 Year-54.3%

2 Year-40.51%

3 Year+8.34%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

JYOTICNC • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-1.4606σ

Significant momentum lag

Universe Rank#2643 of 2716

Top 97.31% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-9.1%

1M-20.0%

6M-37.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹841.64

200 DMA₹860.59

150 DMA Slope-3.3494%Declining

Relative Strength-32.12%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5726

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CENTUMCentum Electronics Limited	19	41th	-4	22	+0	Earnings QualityStable
JYOTICNCJyoti CNC Automation Limited	24	55th	+9	6	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
ANUPThe Anup Engineering Limited	35	77th	+20	14	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
ATAMAtam Valves Limited	35	77th	0	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch