KARURVYSYAKarur Vysya Bank Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Private Sector Bank
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹30,638 Cr
Primary DriverSolvency
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
28 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in solvency. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

68.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
293.052.36%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Solvency
+27.7 pts
Final Composite Risk28 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 028 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • GNPA Spike
  • CAR Decay
  • NIM Compression
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
GNPA Spike
🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
KARURVYSYA: GNPA rise is accelerating (QoQ rise 400 bps vs prev -500 bps).

"The loan book is showing significant stress. Watch for a spike in slippages and bad loans."

NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
KARURVYSYA: NIM decline is accelerating (22 bps drop vs prev -42 bps).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

CAR Decay
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
KARURVYSYA: Persistent 3-quarter CAR decline detected in vigilance zone.

"Capital position is strengthening through fresh equity or higher profit retention."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)8.1811.47✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+38.0+42.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Private Sector Bank (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
293.05(+2.36%)
1M Divergence+0.51%
1 Week-0.1%
1 Month-0.15%
6 Months+18.63%
1 Year+48.21%
2 Year+82.1%
3 Year+240.44%
Sector Average (1M)-0.66%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in solvency suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in solvency ratios and structural leverage, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

KARURVYSYA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.94%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score72.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing94%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0942σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1181 of 2716
Top 43.48% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.1%
1M-0.1%
6M+18.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA278.66
200 DMA262.97
150 DMA Slope+3.6248%Rising
Relative Strength+24.12%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1378
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (23.5).

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
2.120.8th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

CAR Decay

2026

NIM Compression

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

GNPA Spike

2026

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

2025

GNPA Spike

2025

NIM Compression

2024

NIM Compression

2024

CAR Decay

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202613,1592,510-5542,623
FY202511,5081,9424,4871,217
FY20249,8631,6052,9542,478