Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,169.1(▲2.22%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

KAYNESKaynes Technology India Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Kaynes Technology India Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Industrial Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹25,172 Cr

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

+20 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

43.2th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹3,169.1▲2.22%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+14.8 pts

Earnings Quality

+4.8 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Working Capital Expansion
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating cash flow
Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 108.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

KAYNES: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalFY2026

KAYNES: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Inventory growth (0.5%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-80.1%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (21.9%) amidst slow revenue growth (-80.1%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	8.18	8.74	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Products (n=45 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹3,169.1(+2.22%)

1M Divergence-23.91%

1 Week-3.94%

1 Month-21.64%

6 Months-36.34%

1 Year-45.56%

2 Year-6.48%

3 Year+126.18%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

KAYNES • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-1.1444σ

Significant momentum lag

Universe Rank#2587 of 2716

Top 95.25% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-3.9%

1M-21.6%

6M-36.3%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹4,279.32

200 DMA₹4,912.34

150 DMA Slope-10.0062%Declining

Relative Strength-30.85%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0294

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AFFORDABLEAffordable Robotic & Automation Limited	10	20th	+5	6	+2	Competitive PositionStable
KAYNESKaynes Technology India Limited	20	43th	+20	6	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch
ANUPThe Anup Engineering Limited	35	77th	+20	14	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
ATAMAtam Valves Limited	35	77th	0	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch