Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹264(▼0.64%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

KTKBANKThe Karnataka Bank Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: The Karnataka Bank Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Private Sector Bank

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹8,041 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

21 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Early signs of pressure are emerging in asset quality. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

31.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹264▼0.64%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+21.0 pts

Final Composite Risk21 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 21 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

GNPA Spike
NIM Compression

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh

GNPA Spike

🔭 Relative Sector RiskQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

KTKBANK: GNPA rise is accelerating (QoQ rise 38 bps vs prev -3 bps).

"Asset quality signals are beginning to normalize. Historical credit costs are now receding."

NIM Compression

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

KTKBANK: NIM compressed by 43 bps YoY (to 2.45%).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	5.55	11.47	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+45.0	+42.5	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Private Sector Bank (n=20 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

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Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹264(-0.64%)

1M Divergence-1.06%

1 Week-1.33%

1 Month-1.72%

6 Months+24.24%

1 Year+34.58%

2 Year+29.7%

3 Year+85.6%

Sector Average (1M)-0.66%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

KTKBANK • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.95%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score82.5%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing95%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.5365σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#430 of 2716

Top 15.83% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-1.3%

1M-1.7%

6M+24.2%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹214.62

200 DMA₹203.83

150 DMA Slope+5.6536%Rising

Relative Strength+29.73%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0511

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (23.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
KTKBANKThe Karnataka Bank Limited	21	32th	-5	2	+0	GovernanceWatch
AXISBANKAxis Bank Limited	22	37th	-5	15	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
DHANBANKDHANBANK	34	89th	-5	17	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
INDUSINDBKIndusInd Bank Limited	35	95th	-8	16	+0	GovernanceWatch