LAOPALALAOPALA Forensic Risk Analysis

Glass - Consumer
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverCompetitive Position
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
44 / 100
+29 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Weakness is detected in competitive position. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

0.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹173.86▲2.97%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+9.7 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Final Composite Risk44 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 44 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
LAOPALA: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.2 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 3.4% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (27.4%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-19.4%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalFY2026
LAOPALA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2025
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 28.9%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2025
LAOPALA: Revenue fell 7.2% while Debt rose 17.6% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.759.40✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+22.0+22.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Glass - Consumer (n=1 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹173.86(+2.97%)
1M Divergence-4.99%
1 Week-1.45%
1 Month-2.72%
6 Months-17.66%
1 Year-27.57%
2 Year-40.69%
3 Year-52.3%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in competitive position suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

LAOPALA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score7.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6184σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2228 of 2716
Top 82.03% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-1.4%
1M-2.7%
6M-17.7%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹197.05
200 DMA₹208.83
150 DMA Slope-4.1238%Declining
Relative Strength-12.17%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.0269
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (44).
LAOPALALAOPALA
44 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta+29
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
3.535.2th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202634192688
FY20253809711210
FY2024409128689
FY202347412310912