LEMONTREELemon Tree Hotels Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Hotels & Resorts
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹9,024 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

39.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹111.16▼0.88%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+6.4 pts
Stability Adjustment
-1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has declined from 10 → 5 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Debt growth
  • Operating profit margins

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
LEMONTREE: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.32x in FY2026 Q2 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.922.78⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+57.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hotels & Resorts (n=29 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹111.16(-0.88%)
1M Divergence-5.85%
1 Week-5.16%
1 Month-5.47%
6 Months-31.43%
1 Year-19.93%
2 Year-18.47%
3 Year+19.91%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

LEMONTREE • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.6837σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2302 of 2716
Top 84.76% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-5.2%
1M-5.5%
6M-31.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹133.56
200 DMA₹141.61
150 DMA Slope-4.9285%Declining
Relative Strength-25.94%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.3788
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (9).
LEMONTREELemon Tree Hotels Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile39th
Delta+5
Active Flags2
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

ADVENTHTLAdvent Hotels International Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile39th
Delta+5
Active Flags2
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

ADVANIHOTRAdvani Hotels & Resorts (India) Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile82th
Delta+5
Active Flags14
Accel+4
Competitive Position

Watch

AHLEASTAsian Hotels (East) Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile93th
Delta-8
Active Flags24
Accel+0
Governance

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,4532885422,004
FY20251,2882435422,148
FY20241,0771824651,894
FY20238791413852,177