LODHALodha Developers Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Residential Commercial Projects
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹96,987 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

30.6th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹903.8▲1.21%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+6.4 pts
Stability Adjustment
-1.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Cash Conversion Deficit
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
LODHA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)0.455.31✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Residential Commercial Projects (n=50 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹903.8(+1.21%)
1M Divergence+0.28%
1 Week+0.01%
1 Month+0.66%
6 Months-18.54%
1 Year-36.76%
2 Year-34.08%
3 Year+63.16%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

LODHA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.2977σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1639 of 2716
Top 60.35% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.0%
1M+0.7%
6M-18.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹999.15
200 DMA₹1,046.94
150 DMA Slope-3.2596%Declining
Relative Strength-13.05%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.2413
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
LODHALodha Developers Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta+5
Active Flags2
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

AGIILAgi Infra Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta+5
Active Flags1
Accel+1
Competitive Position

Stable

ALEMBICLTDAlembic Limited
16 Risk
Sector %ile65th
Delta+16
Active Flags4
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

AMJLANDAmj Land Holdings Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile80th
Delta+35
Active Flags3
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
6.868th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY202617,1203,4319599,884
FY202514,1702,7671,5667,080
FY202410,4701,5542,5127,680
FY20239,6114892,7509,049