LTLarsen & Toubro Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹5,57,673 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
5 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

26.9th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹4,000.9▼0.25%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-3.0 pts
Final Composite Risk5 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 5 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Cash Conversion Deficit
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
LT: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)1.364.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+61.0+56.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹4,000.9(-0.25%)
1M Divergence+0.27%
1 Week-0.91%
1 Month+0.65%
6 Months+1.42%
1 Year+10.82%
2 Year+12%
3 Year+86.01%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

LT • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.91%
Trend QualityDeveloping
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score72.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing91%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1522σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1311 of 2716
Top 48.27% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.9%
1M+0.7%
6M+1.4%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹3,934.31
200 DMA₹3,858.31
150 DMA Slope+0.7947%Rising
Relative Strength+6.90%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1049
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (10).
ABINFRAA B Infrabuild Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags1
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

LTLarsen & Toubro Limited
5 Risk
Sector %ile27th
Delta+5
Active Flags2
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

ASHOKAAshoka Buildcon Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta-5
Active Flags15
Accel+0
Competitive Position

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026291,63518,95416,741121,683
FY2025259,85915,0379,161129,559
FY2024225,27115,54718,266114,040
FY2023186,27012,53122,777118,513