Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹931.25(▲1.8%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

MACPOWERMACPOWER Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: MACPOWER Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Industrial Products

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

20 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

43.2th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹931.25▲1.8%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+11.9 pts

Stability Adjustment

+8.0 pts

Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 20 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Working Capital Expansion

What to Watch Next Quarter

Working capital efficiency
Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 57.8%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

MACPOWER: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.3 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 13.6% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

MACPOWER: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (34.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (12.5%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.92	8.74	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+46.0	+45.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Industrial Products (n=45 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹931.25(+1.8%)

1M Divergence-19.68%

1 Week-17.5%

1 Month-17.41%

6 Months-6.64%

1 Year+4.93%

2 Year-34.87%

3 Year+215.59%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

MACPOWER • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.35%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score20%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing35%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.8043σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2416 of 2716

Top 88.95% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-17.5%

1M-17.4%

6M-6.6%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹965.24

200 DMA₹935.58

150 DMA Slope+4.1382%Rising

Relative Strength-2.47%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.6983

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (21).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AFFORDABLEAffordable Robotic & Automation Limited	10	20th	+5	6	+2	Competitive PositionStable
MACPOWERMACPOWER	20	43th	-5	5	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
ANUPThe Anup Engineering Limited	35	77th	+20	14	+2	Earnings QualityWatch
ATAMAtam Valves Limited	35	77th	0	11	+0	Earnings QualityWatch