MANINFRAMan Infraconstruction Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Civil Construction
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹4,136 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
+20 QoQ
Deteriorating
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Weakness is detected in project execution and margins. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

90.4th %ile (Sector)Accel: +4 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹118.3▲3.66%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.0 pts
Competitive Position
+15.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 35 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🚨 Escalate
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 11.9 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Relative Growth Weakness
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 4 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (11.0%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
MANINFRA: Net Profit collapsed by 57.8% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
MANINFRA: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
MANINFRA: Revenue fell 35.7% while Debt rose 62.5% in 2026 vs 2025.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)3.184.13✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+56.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Civil Construction (n=53 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹118.3(+3.66%)
1M Divergence-1.48%
1 Week+2.36%
1 Month-1.1%
6 Months-12.82%
1 Year-27.53%
2 Year-35.97%
3 Year+28.56%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

MANINFRA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.3%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score40%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing3%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.1279σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#780 of 2716
Top 28.72% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+2.4%
1M-1.1%
6M-12.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹116.52
200 DMA₹125.84
150 DMA Slope-2.7714%Declining
Relative Strength-6.10%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.2169
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).
ABINFRAA B Infrabuild Limited
0 Risk
Sector %ile0th
Delta0
Active Flags1
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

MANINFRAMan Infraconstruction Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+20
Active Flags6
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

AFCONSAfcons Infrastructure Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile90th
Delta+25
Active Flags12
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026792211-5058
FY20251,23131313336
FY20241,360303573131
FY20231,938289448206