Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹810.95(▲0.65%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

MARICOMarico Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Marico Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Edible Oil

Risk ClassStable

Market Cap₹1,01,300 Cr

Primary DriverEarnings Quality

Flagium AI Risk Score

9 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile is stable with manageable leverage. Pressure is receding in project execution and margins. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

50.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹810.95▲0.65%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality

+6.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+2.0 pts

Final Composite Risk9 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 5 → 9 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Margin Compression
Operating Leverage Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating cash flow
Inventory turnover
Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

MARICO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Inventory growth (9.1%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-0.6%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Operating Leverage Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Margin Compression

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Operating margin declined by 2.4 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 6.0%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Risk Trajectory

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Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	2.83	9.43	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+57.0	+57.0	✅ RESILIENT

Forensic Benchmark Context: Edible Oil (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹810.95(+0.65%)

1M Divergence+2.37%

1 Week-2.3%

1 Month+4.64%

6 Months+13.48%

1 Year+16.28%

2 Year+38.26%

3 Year+52.61%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

MARICO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.94%

Trend QualityStrong

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score82.5%

Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)

Probability of Advancing94%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.0066σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#984 of 2716

Top 36.23% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-2.3%

1M+4.6%

6M+13.5%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹760.52

200 DMA₹750.32

150 DMA Slope+2.0716%Rising

Relative Strength+18.96%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1292

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (9).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AWLAWL Agri Business Limited	8	0th	-2	14	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
MARICOMarico Limited	9	50th	-5	5	+0	Earnings QualityStable
GOKULAGROGOKULAGRO	25	75th	-5	14	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
PATANJALIPatanjali Foods Limited	25	75th	-5	15	+0	Earnings QualityWatch