MEDANTAGlobal Health Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Hospital
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹30,400 Cr
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
10 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

31.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +2 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,198.8▲2.57%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+13.5 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-12.0 pts
Final Composite Risk10 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 10 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Inventory Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Inventory turnover
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (3)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 3.6 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Inventory growth (9.7%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-74.2%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 12.4%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.186.95✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+56.0+51.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Hospital (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,198.8(+2.57%)
1M Divergence+5.03%
1 Week-2.44%
1 Month+7.3%
6 Months-0.17%
1 Year-1.15%
2 Year+0.62%
3 Year+106%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

MEDANTA • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.4%
Trend QualityEarly Base
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score37.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing4%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.0550σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1093 of 2716
Top 40.24% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-2.4%
1M+7.3%
6M-0.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,157.74
200 DMA₹1,209.49
150 DMA Slope-1.4898%Declining
Relative Strength+4.27%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.9162
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (15).
MEDANTAGlobal Health Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile31th
Delta+5
Active Flags3
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Stable

AGARWALEYEDr. Agarwal's Health Care Limited
19 Risk
Sector %ile63th
Delta-5
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Stable

HCGHealthcare Global Enterprises Limited
26 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+3
Active Flags24
Accel+1
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

GPTHEALTHGPTHEALTH
30 Risk
Sector %ile81th
Delta-5
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
110th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Margin Compression

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20264,5095547141,190
FY20253,771481624328
FY20243,350478612419
FY20232,759326645842