MGLMahanagar Gas Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

LPG/CNG/PNG/LNG Supplier
Risk ClassWatch
Market Cap₹11,883 Cr
Primary DriverGrowth Sustainability
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
25 / 100
-3 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in growth sustainability. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

83.3th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹1,092.2▲1.39%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Earnings Quality
+6.6 pts
Final Composite Risk25 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 25 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Margin Compression
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (19.6%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.3%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Margin Compression
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ4 FY2025
Operating margin declined by 3.5 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Operating efficiency is stabilizing. The rate of margin deterioration has slowed."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 20.8%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Capex Efficiency Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2024
Aggressive Capex (15.9%) amidst slow revenue growth (1.7%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)6.459.40✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+41.0+50.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: LPG/CNG/PNG/LNG Supplier (n=7 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹1,092.2(+1.39%)
1M Divergence-6.09%
1 Week-0.35%
1 Month-3.83%
6 Months-5.76%
1 Year-15.19%
2 Year-12.17%
3 Year+12.53%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in growth sustainability suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

MGL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3350σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1735 of 2716
Top 63.88% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.3%
1M-3.8%
6M-5.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹1,113.39
200 DMA₹1,156.52
150 DMA Slope-2.1167%Declining
Relative Strength-0.74%Neutral
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7791
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (16).
CONFIPETCONFIPET
17 Risk
Sector %ile67th
Delta-5
Active Flags22
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

MGLMahanagar Gas Limited
25 Risk
Sector %ile83th
Delta-3
Active Flags5
Accel+0
Growth Sustainability

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Capex Efficiency Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20269,1858411,162-
FY20258,1461,0401,814-
FY20247,0891,2761,461-
FY20237,033790969-