Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹410.75(▲0.72%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

MIDHANIMishra Dhatu Nigam Limited Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: Mishra Dhatu Nigam Limited Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Aerospace & Defense

Risk ClassWatch

Market Cap₹6,477 Cr

Primary DriverGovernance

Flagium AI Risk Score

33 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. Risk levels are improving.

75.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹410.75▲0.72%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment

+33.0 pts

Final Composite Risk33 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 4 → 33 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Relative Growth Weakness
Industrial Margin Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Inventory turnover
Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Industrial Margin Stress

📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

MIDHANI: EBITDA margin compressed by 2.6 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 20.3% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Inventory growth (4.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (-19.2%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

MIDHANI: Net Profit collapsed by 71.7% from FY2024 Q1 to FY2025 Q1.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

MIDHANI: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Operating Leverage Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ2 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 20.6%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 1 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ1 FY2025

MIDHANI: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 2.31x in FY2025 Q1 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"The ability to cover interest is strengthening as earnings improve or debt is retired."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7.08	7.38	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+33.0	+46.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Aerospace & Defense (n=21 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹410.75(+0.72%)

1M Divergence+3.08%

1 Week-0.92%

1 Month+5.35%

6 Months+29.92%

1 Year-0.88%

2 Year-4.46%

3 Year+81.27%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

MIDHANI • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.81%

Trend QualityStabilizing

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score60%

Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)

Probability of Advancing81%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score+0.6680σ

Improving momentum strength

Universe Rank#361 of 2716

Top 13.29% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.9%

1M+5.3%

6M+29.9%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹352.63

200 DMA₹361.31

150 DMA Slope+0.8855%Rising

Relative Strength+35.41%Leading

Relative Turnover (RTR)1.5417

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (20).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
AEQUSAequs Limited	20	50th	+15	3	+2	Balance Sheet StressWatch
AVANTELAvantel Limited	30	60th	-5	13	+0	Earnings QualityWatch
MIDHANIMishra Dhatu Nigam Limited	33	75th	-5	8	+0	GovernanceWatch
DCXINDIADCXINDIA	53	100th	+18	29	+1	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration