Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹47.31(▼0.98%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

MOLMOL Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: MOL Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Pesticides & Agrochemicals

Risk ClassWatch

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

35 / 100

+23 QoQ

Early Deterioration

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in balance sheet stress. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

77.8th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹47.31▼0.98%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+19.5 pts

Competitive Position

+13.0 pts

Earnings Quality

+7.9 pts

Stability Adjustment

-5.0 pts

Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 15 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🚨 Escalate

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Relative Growth Weakness
Working Capital Expansion
Capex Efficiency Stress

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Capex Efficiency Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2024

Aggressive Capex (43.3%) amidst slow revenue growth (-41.8%).

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

MOL: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.35x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 5 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

MOL: Net Profit collapsed by 59.5% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Negative FCF Streak

⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2025

MOL: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"Free cash flow pressure is easing as capital intensity or working capital stress recedes."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

MOL: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight10/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 31.5%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

MOL: Revenue fell 39.4% while Debt rose 1.8% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	6.33	7.62	✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+31.0	+46.5	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Pesticides & Agrochemicals (n=18 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹47.31(-0.98%)

1M Divergence-5.58%

1 Week-8.37%

1 Month-3.31%

6 Months-28.52%

1 Year-45.53%

2 Year-41.38%

3 Year-41.59%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in balance sheet stress suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in core structural metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

MOL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score0%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing0%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.7384σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2359 of 2716

Top 86.86% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-8.4%

1M-3.3%

6M-28.5%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹57.81

200 DMA₹64.1

150 DMA Slope-6.3856%Declining

Relative Strength-23.03%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)2.3776

ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (19.5).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
ADVANCEAdvance Agrolife Limited	14	44th	+5	3	+1	Growth SustainabilityStable
ASTECAstec LifeSciences Limited	25	67th	-5	26	+0	Balance Sheet StressWatch
MOLMOL	35	78th	+23	8	+1	Balance Sheet StressWatch
BESTAGROBest Agrolife Limited	47	94th	+33	15	+2	Balance Sheet StressModerate Deterioration