Last Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹546.9(▲0.37%)

Reporting PeriodQ4 FY26

MONTECARLOMONTECARLO Forensic Risk Analysis

Name: MONTECARLO Structural Risk Analysis
Creator: Flagium AI
License: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/

Garments & Apparels

Risk ClassStable

Market CapN/A

Primary DriverBalance Sheet Stress

Flagium AI Risk Score

17 / 100

-5 QoQ

Improving

Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in balance sheet stress. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

75.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs

Updated2026-06-02

Market View

₹546.9▲0.37%

PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Balance Sheet Stress

+10.6 pts

Stability Adjustment

+6.0 pts

Final Composite Risk17 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 17 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction

🟢 Improving

Primary Deterioration Drivers

Inventory Stress
Industrial Margin Stress
Relative Growth Weakness

What to Watch Next Quarter

Operating profit margins
Operating cash flow
Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (8)

CriticalHigh

Industrial Margin Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumAccelerating

Last SignalQ1 FY2026

MONTECARLO: EBITDA margin compressed by 7.4 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 6.2% of revenue YoY.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Low Interest Coverage

💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 7 Qtrs

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Impact Weight8/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ4 FY2026

MONTECARLO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of 1.43x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Cash Conversion Deficit

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

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Impact Weight6/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalFY2026

MONTECARLO: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Profit Collapse

📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 2 Qtrs

More Detail

Impact Weight8/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2024

MONTECARLO: Net Profit collapsed by 189.6% from FY2023 Q4 to FY2024 Q4.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Relative Growth Weakness

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight12/15

MomentumPersistent

Last SignalQ3 FY2026

Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (12.8%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion

💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

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Impact Weight10/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ4 FY2025

Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 10.5%.

"Working capital pressure is receding. Cash previously locked in operations is being released."

Inventory Stress

📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 2 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight15/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalQ2 FY2025

Inventory growth (8.9%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (4.8%).

"Inventory overhang is clearing. Stock levels are normalizing as sales momentum returns."

Revenue-Debt Divergence

🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years

More Detail

Impact Weight6/15

MomentumDecaying

Last SignalFY2024

MONTECARLO: Revenue fell 4.3% while Debt rose 7.4% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory

Loading Chart

Resilience Matrix

Metric	Value	vs Sector	Signal
Volatility (σ)	7	5.02	⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)	1	1.00	✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.	5%	5%	✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer	+49.0	+56.0	📈 CRITICAL

Forensic Benchmark Context: Garments & Apparels (n=17 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart

Share Price

Risk Score (0-100)

Market Performance

₹546.9(+0.37%)

1M Divergence-4.89%

1 Week-0.06%

1 Month-2.63%

6 Months-23.7%

1 Year-6.47%

2 Year-6%

3 Year-23.74%

Sector Average (1M)+2.27%

Sentinel Forensic Assessment

ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in balance sheet stress remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of core structural metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

MONTECARLO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%

Trend QualityDeteriorating

Phase Progression

Phase Progression Score7.5%

Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)

Probability of Advancing1%

CoinTree Momentum

Composite Z-Score-0.4975σ

Weakening momentum trend

Universe Rank#2055 of 2716

Top 75.66% in momentum strength

Timeframe Sparklines

1W-0.1%

1M-2.6%

6M-23.7%

Weinstein Indicators

150 DMA₹617.1

200 DMA₹616.31

150 DMA Slope-2.2931%Declining

Relative Strength-20.28%Lagging

Relative Turnover (RTR)0.8052

ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10).

Ticker	Risk Score	Sector %ile	Delta	Flags	Accel	Primary Driver
CANTABILCantabil Retail India Limited	9	38th	-5	7	+0	GovernanceStable
MONTECARLOMONTECARLO	17	75th	-5	8	+0	Balance Sheet StressStable
GOKEXGokaldas Exports Limited	36	94th	+5	26	+1	Earnings QualityWatch
KITEXKitex Garments Limited	40	100th	0	29	+0	Earnings QualityModerate Deterioration