MUNJALSHOWMUNJALSHOW Forensic Risk Analysis

Auto Components & Equipments
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
20 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests a building risk profile. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

74.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹127.26▼0.89%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Competitive Position
+10.6 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.0 pts
Stability Adjustment
-14.0 pts
Final Composite Risk20 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 20 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow
  • Working capital efficiency

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Industrial Margin Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
MUNJALSHOW: EBITDA margin compressed by 4.0 bps YoY and Raw material costs consumed an additional 4.0% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
MUNJALSHOW: Net Profit collapsed by 100.5% from FY2025 Q4 to FY2026 Q4.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
MUNJALSHOW: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.2%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 24.1%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)4.555.20✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+46.0+55.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Auto Components & Equipments (n=74 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹127.26(-0.89%)
1M Divergence-3.49%
1 Week-7.94%
1 Month-1.22%
6 Months+0.62%
1 Year-6.94%
2 Year-12.16%
3 Year+24.18%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently deteriorating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

MUNJALSHOW • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 1 — Accumulation

The company is in a foundational phase. Risk metrics are stabilizing as the company builds a base for potential future fundamental improvement.

Stage Transition Prob.36%
Trend QualityStabilizing
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score47.5%
Readiness LabelModerate (Transition Potential Building)
Probability of Advancing36%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.3182σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1688 of 2716
Top 62.15% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-7.9%
1M-1.2%
6M+0.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹126.42
200 DMA₹129
150 DMA Slope+0.0968%Rising
Relative Strength+6.11%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1347
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (10.5).
MUNJALSHOWMUNJALSHOW
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

ALICONAlicon Castalloy Limited
20 Risk
Sector %ile74th
Delta-5
Active Flags18
Accel+0
Balance Sheet Stress

Watch

HITECHGEARHITECHGEAR
42 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+6
Active Flags28
Accel+2
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
660th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
329.6th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Industrial Margin Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20261,33522-21-
FY20251,2812937-
FY20241,2073111-
FY20231,2612533-