MUTHOOTMFMUTHOOTMF Forensic Risk Analysis

Microfinance Institutions
Risk ClassStable
Market Cap₹2,576 Cr
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
14 / 100
-5 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Asset quality remains stable for now. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

25.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹179.6▲3.18%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+14.0 pts
Final Composite Risk14 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 14 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • NIM Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (2)

CriticalHigh
NIM Compression
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
MUTHOOTMF: NIM compressed by 307 bps YoY (to 11.14%).

"Pressure on core margins is stabilizing. Monitor for sustained interest income recovery."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ2 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)2.186.43✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+52.0+52.0✅ RESILIENT
Forensic Benchmark Context: Microfinance Institutions (n=5 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹179.6(+3.18%)
1M Divergence-5.92%
1 Week+0.83%
1 Month-6.64%
6 Months-1.83%
1 Year+40.3%
2 Year-17.29%
3 Year-28.49%
Sector Average (1M)-0.73%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in governance remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of structural transparency and audit trails confirm the absence of material structural stress. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

MUTHOOTMF • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 2 — Advancing

The company is in a growth phase. Institutional sentiment is highly positive, supported by strong fundamentals and sustained risk reduction.

Stage Transition Prob.93%
Trend QualityStrong
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score80%
Readiness LabelHigh (Phase Transition Imminent)
Probability of Advancing93%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.1332σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#1266 of 2716
Top 46.61% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+0.8%
1M-6.6%
6M-1.8%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹176.1
200 DMA₹172.79
150 DMA Slope+1.5269%Rising
Relative Strength+3.39%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)3.1821
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (14).
MUTHOOTMFMUTHOOTMF
14 Risk
Sector %ile25th
Delta-5
Active Flags2
Accel+0
Governance

Stable

CREDITACCCREDITACCESS GRAMEEN LIMITED
15 Risk
Sector %ile75th
Delta+5
Active Flags7
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,381170-5809,547
FY20252,564-2231,3827,926
FY20242,285450-2,1258,359