MVGJLMVGJL Forensic Risk Analysis

Gems Jewellery And Watches
Risk ClassStable
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Stable structural profile. Financial profile appears resilient.
17 / 100
+5 QoQ
Early Deterioration
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Weakness is detected in profitability and earnings quality. No immediate concerns are visible. Risk is increasing at a faster pace.

87.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +1 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹155.02▼0.76%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+15.0 pts
Growth Sustainability
+10.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.8 pts
Stability Adjustment
-17.0 pts
Final Composite Risk17 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 17 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Inventory Stress
  • Industrial Margin Stress
  • Working Capital Expansion
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Inventory turnover
  • Operating profit margins
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (5)

CriticalHigh
Inventory Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 3 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Inventory growth (22.2%) significantly outpaced revenue growth (8.1%).

"Stock is piling up in the warehouse. Inventory turnover is slowing down dangerously."

Industrial Margin Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
MVGJL: Raw material costs consumed an additional 21.1% of revenue YoY.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
MVGJL: OCF below Net Profit in 3/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion is dangerously low. Operational cash flow is significantly trailing reported PAT."

Working Capital Expansion
💧 Liquidity & CoverageAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Working capital expansion detected: Receivable days increased by 1.0%.

"Early signs of working capital expansion. Receivable or inventory days are creeping up."

Operating Leverage Stress
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.736.37✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+49.0+52.5📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Gems Jewellery And Watches (n=24 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹155.02(-0.76%)
1M Divergence-12.88%
1 Week-0.16%
1 Month-10.62%
6 Months-16.52%
1 Year-34.78%
2 Year-34.48%
3 Year-40.31%
Sector Average (1M)+2.27%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The structural architecture is currently robust. Capital resilience buffers in earnings quality remain well-maintained against forensic benchmarks. Systematic scans of operational margins and profitability metrics confirm the absence of material structural stress. Strategic vigilance is advised as structural decay is accelerating.

MVGJL • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score0%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score-0.5002σ
Weakening momentum trend
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#2062 of 2716
Top 75.92% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W-0.2%
1M-10.6%
6M-16.5%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹173.36
200 DMA₹179.34
150 DMA Slope-2.0785%Declining
Relative Strength-13.68%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)0.7763
ParticipationWeak

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (13.5).
AUSOMENTAusom Enterprise Limited
12 Risk
Sector %ile43th
Delta+1
Active Flags11
Accel+3
Earnings Quality

Stable

MVGJLMVGJL
17 Risk
Sector %ile87th
Delta+5
Active Flags5
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

LGHLLGHL
35 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta+20
Active Flags22
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
5.656th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Inventory Stress

2026

Working Capital Expansion

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Industrial Margin Stress

2026

Cash Conversion Deficit

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2025

Industrial Margin Stress

2025

Inventory Stress

2025

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Inventory Stress

2024

Working Capital Expansion

2024

Working Capital Expansion

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY20262,75911526459
FY20252,397100-67368
FY20242,1618160405