NDTVNDTV Forensic Risk Analysis

TV Broadcasting & Software Production
Risk ClassWatch
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverEarnings Quality
Flagium AI Risk Score
Early signs of stress detected. Not yet widespread, but initial deterioration is visible.
35 / 100
0 QoQ
Stable
Sentinel Insight

Financial profile remains stable for now. Pressure has stabilized in profitability and earnings quality. This suggests the risk profile is currently stabilizing. No major change in risk trend.

60.0th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹82.24▲0.45%
PeriodQ4 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Earnings Quality
+20.0 pts
Balance Sheet Stress
+8.6 pts
Stability Adjustment
+6.0 pts
Final Composite Risk35 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 9 → 35 over 13 quarters.

Expected Direction
⚠ Watch
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Operating Leverage Stress
  • Low Interest Coverage
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth
  • Operating cash flow

Active Risk Objects (7)

CriticalHigh
Margin Compression
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 15.3 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Margins are in freefall. Operating costs are growing significantly faster than revenue."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 11 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
NDTV: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -16.07x in FY2026 Q4 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ4 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Negative FCF Streak
⚖️ Governance SignalsAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
NDTV: Negative Free Cash Flow for last 3 consecutive years.

"High capital expenditure and low OCF are draining cash. Debt levels may rise sharply."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalQ2 FY2025
NDTV: Net Profit collapsed by 1063.1% from FY2024 Q2 to FY2025 Q2.

"Earnings quality is stabilizing. The reliance on non-operational items is receding."

Cash Conversion Deficit
📊 Earnings QualityAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
NDTV: OCF below Net Profit in 2/3 recent years.

"Cash conversion has normalized in the latest period. Operational cash flow is back in sync."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 1 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumDecaying
Last SignalFY2024
NDTV: Revenue fell 1.8% while Debt rose 906.9% in 2024 vs 2023.

"Debt servicing metrics have improved recently. The company is actively deleveraging."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)48.37✅ RESILIENT
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+31.0+32.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: TV Broadcasting & Software Production (n=11 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹82.24(+0.45%)
1M Divergence+4.2%
1 Week+4.31%
1 Month+4.58%
6 Months+1.18%
1 Year-50.64%
2 Year-66.83%
3 Year-66.02%
Sector Average (1M)+0.38%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Early Signals and currently consolidating. Recent structural triggers in earnings quality suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in operational margins and profitability metrics, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Continued monitoring is necessary as risk levels remain above institutional safety parameters.

NDTV • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.1%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score32.5%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing1%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0849σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#841 of 2716
Top 30.96% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+4.3%
1M+4.6%
6M+1.2%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹83.17
200 DMA₹92.8
150 DMA Slope-4.6230%Declining
Relative Strength+6.67%Leading
Relative Turnover (RTR)1.1167
ParticipationNeutral

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

Risk profile is broadly in line with the Sector Mean (34).
AQYLONAqylon Nexus Limited
10 Risk
Sector %ile10th
Delta+5
Active Flags8
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

NDTVNDTV
35 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta0
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Watch

BAGFILMSB.A.G Films and Media Limited
35 Risk
Sector %ile60th
Delta+21
Active Flags21
Accel+4
Earnings Quality

Watch

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
00th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
4.242.4th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Negative FCF Streak

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Negative FCF Streak

2024

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2024

Cash Conversion Deficit

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2026540-323-256186
FY2025472-218-130261
FY2024393-211031
FY20234005393