NELCONELCO Forensic Risk Analysis

Computers Hardware & Equipments
Risk ClassModerate Deterioration
Market CapN/A
Primary DriverGovernance
Flagium AI Risk Score
Moderate stress emerging. While not critical, underlying pressure is building.
42 / 100
-8 QoQ
Improving
Sentinel Insight

Some early signs of pressure are visible. Pressure is receding in governance. This indicates that forensic pressure is currently receding. Risk levels are improving.

85.7th %ile (Sector)Accel: +0 Qtrs
Updated2026-06-02
Market View
₹699.8▲1.82%
PeriodQ3 FY26

Score Waterfall
Absolute contribution points of each forensic pillar to the final risk score. Derived from: Sector Baseline + Active Penalties - Mitigation Buffers.

Stability Adjustment
+42.0 pts
Final Composite Risk42 / 100

Investment Risk Thesis

Historical Trend

Current risk score has risen from 0 → 42 over 12 quarters.

Expected Direction
🟢 Improving
Primary Deterioration Drivers
  • Margin Compression
  • Relative Growth Weakness
  • Operating Leverage Stress
What to Watch Next Quarter
  • Operating profit margins
  • Debt growth

Active Risk Objects (6)

CriticalHigh
Relative Growth Weakness
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 5 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight12/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Revenue growth consistently lags behind sector median (13.6%).

"Early signs of earnings quality decay. Profitability is being driven by non-core items."

Margin Compression
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight15/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Operating margin declined by 6.0 bps YoY for two consecutive quarters.

"Early signs of margin erosion. Input costs are beginning to eat into core profits."

Operating Leverage Stress
📉 Trend DeteriorationAnnualActive for 6 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight10/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
Expenses are consistently growing faster than revenues, creating operational pressure.

"The balance sheet is heavily over-leveraged. Interest payments are consuming most of the profit."

Low Interest Coverage
💧 Liquidity & CoverageQuarterlyActive for 3 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
NELCO: Low Interest Coverage Ratio of -0.30x in FY2026 Q3 (Threshold: 2.5x).

"Interest coverage is dangerously low. Even a minor fall in profit could trigger a default."

Profit Collapse
📊 Earnings QualityQuarterlyActive for 4 Qtrs
More Detail
Impact Weight8/15
MomentumPersistent
Last SignalQ3 FY2026
NELCO: Net Profit collapsed by 124.0% from FY2025 Q3 to FY2026 Q3.

"Earnings quality is under severe pressure. High accruals suggest potential revenue overstatement."

Revenue-Debt Divergence
🏛️ Solvency & LeverageAnnualActive for 2 Years
More Detail
Impact Weight6/15
MomentumAccelerating
Last SignalFY2026
NELCO: Revenue fell 3.9% while Debt rose 14.2% in 2025 vs 2024.

"Debt levels are creeping up. Monitor for signs of excessive borrowing for non-core activities."

Risk Trajectory
Historical 12-quarter risk trend (Q-11 to Q0) followed by a 2-quarter predictive funnel (Q+1, Q+2).
Loading Chart
Resilience Matrix
Diagnostic benchmarking comparing structural sensitivity and risk buffers against sector medians.
MetricValuevs SectorSignal
Volatility (σ)5.823.22⚠️ HIGH
Sensitivity (ε_s)11.00✅ RESILIENT
Escalation Prob.5%5%✅ NEUTRAL
Safety Buffer+24.0+57.0📈 CRITICAL
Forensic Benchmark Context: Computers Hardware & Equipments (n=8 peers)

Correlation Analysis
Visualizing the relationship between stock price movement and structural risk objects.

Loading Chart
Share Price
Risk Score (0-100)
Market Performance
₹699.8(+1.82%)
1M Divergence-6.47%
1 Week+3.23%
1 Month-0.56%
6 Months-15.56%
1 Year-22.24%
2 Year-2.19%
3 Year+13.88%
Sector Average (1M)+5.9%
Sentinel Forensic Assessment
ALGORITHMIC RISK PROFILE • NON-ADVISORY

The risk profile is Moderate Stress and currently improving. Recent structural triggers in governance suggest a building pressure on the underlying framework. Material forensic traces are visible in structural transparency and audit trails, indicating a progressive erosion of structural stability. Initial structural recovery is visible; monitor for a sustained return to resilience.

NELCO • MARKET STRUCTURE

Stage 4 — Declining

The company is in a defensive phase. Sentiment and fundamentals are deteriorating under persistent downward pressure, indicating elevated risk levels.

Stage Transition Prob.0%
Trend QualityDeteriorating
Phase Progression
Phase Progression Score25%
Readiness LabelLow (Early Base Consolidation)
Probability of Advancing0%
CoinTree Momentum
Composite Z-Score+0.0633σ
Improving momentum strength
Universe Rank
A cross-sectional rank of this stock's composite momentum score compared to all other tracked equities in the universe. A rank of #1 of 1035 means it has the strongest overall price momentum in the market.
#881 of 2716
Top 32.44% in momentum strength
Timeframe Sparklines
1W+3.2%
1M-0.6%
6M-15.6%
Weinstein Indicators
150 DMA₹702.87
200 DMA₹740.26
150 DMA Slope-3.4236%Declining
Relative Strength-10.08%Lagging
Relative Turnover (RTR)2.3377
ParticipationHealthy

PEER COMPARISON

Ranked comparison against sector peers

This company shows higher risk compared to the Sector Mean (9).
DLINKINDIADLINKINDIA
10 Risk
Sector %ile57th
Delta0
Active Flags7
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Stable

CONTROLPRCONTROLPR
19 Risk
Sector %ile71th
Delta+4
Active Flags6
Accel+1
Earnings Quality

Stable

NELCONELCO
42 Risk
Sector %ile86th
Delta-8
Active Flags6
Accel+0
Governance

Moderate Deterioration

CEREBRAINTCerebra Integrated Technologies Limited
51 Risk
Sector %ile100th
Delta0
Active Flags30
Accel+0
Earnings Quality

Moderate Deterioration

* Peer comparison is based on risk signals, not valuation or returns.

Risk Profiles

Solvency
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Governance
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Earnings Quality
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Balance Sheet Stress
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Competitive Position
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)
Growth Sustainability
10100th %ile
VS Sector Median (8.5)

Deterioration Timeline

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Operating Leverage Stress

2026

Margin Compression

2026

Relative Growth Weakness

2026

Revenue-Debt Divergence

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Relative Growth Weakness

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Operating Leverage Stress

2025

Margin Compression

2025

Revenue-Debt Divergence

Key Financials (INR Cr)

PeriodRevenueNet ProfitOCFDebt
FY2025310102038
FY2024323244533
FY2023316205838
FY20222651649-